Global Economy May Delay Bitcoin Bull Run

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A growing number of analysts are now saying that Bitcoin’s next big surge might not follow the traditional four-year cycle as closely as many expect. According to CoinEdition, macroeconomic forces — especially the broader global economic cycle — could play a larger role in timing the next bull run than past models tied primarily to Bitcoin’s halving events.

Analyst Ash Crypto argues that Bitcoin’s price historically moved more in step with global economic growth and liquidity than with internal crypto-specific events like halvings. In past cycles, bull markets tended to coincide with periods of strong economic expansion and easy access to capital. However, recent macro indicators have pointed toward slowing or stagnant economic conditions, potentially elongating the period before a sustained Bitcoin rally can take hold.

One key factor highlighted is the fall in the Truflation index — a real-time inflation gauge — to around 1.21%, which suggests economic cooling rather than rapid growth. Traditionally, lower inflation can ultimately lead to central bank easing and more liquidity — good conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin — but that boost often comes later in the cycle after economic weakness has run its course.

CoinEdition also points out that fiscal moves like stretching out government debt maturities may have inadvertently extended the current economic cycle. If these macro trends continue, the next major Bitcoin bull run could arrive later than the typical four-year rhythm investors have come to expect.

This viewpoint aligns with broader market commentary that global macro dynamics — including interest rates, liquidity conditions, and economic growth — are increasingly influencing crypto performance. While this doesn’t mean a bull run won’t happen, it does suggest patience may be required as the timing may be shaped more by world economic trends than by a fixed crypto calendar.