Will Bitcoin Peak in Fall 2025 or Sooner?
Posted: Tue Jul 08, 2025 2:09 am
Bitcoin’s historical price action has long followed a four-year halving cycle, but current debates suggest a split in expectations: will the next BTC peak hit in fall 2025, or are we already near the top?
A widely circulated chart shows that in previous bull cycles (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin surged for roughly 2–3 quarters after halving, followed by a sharp correction. If this halving playbook holds true again for 2024, BTC could top out by mid to late Q3 2024, rather than in 2025.
What the chart shows:
Why this matters:
If we’re nearing the cycle top, it may be time to lock in profits, rebalance portfolios, or prepare for a potential bear phase. On the other hand, if the market breaks from historical patterns, a longer, more gradual climb could be in play.
TL;DR: History says the peak may be just months away. Narratives say 2025. Which side are you on?
A widely circulated chart shows that in previous bull cycles (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin surged for roughly 2–3 quarters after halving, followed by a sharp correction. If this halving playbook holds true again for 2024, BTC could top out by mid to late Q3 2024, rather than in 2025.
What the chart shows:
- In 2017 and 2021, bull runs lasted 518–549 days post-breakout.
- Current cycle (post-April 2024 halving) has followed a similar trajectory, with BTC already seeing significant upward movement.
- Volume, time frames, and breakout behavior are repeating almost identically.
Why this matters:
If we’re nearing the cycle top, it may be time to lock in profits, rebalance portfolios, or prepare for a potential bear phase. On the other hand, if the market breaks from historical patterns, a longer, more gradual climb could be in play.
TL;DR: History says the peak may be just months away. Narratives say 2025. Which side are you on?