Will Bitcoin Peak in Fall 2025 or Sooner?

[Chawla Solutions]

Bitcoin’s historical price action has long followed a four-year halving cycle, but current debates suggest a split in expectations: will the next BTC peak hit in fall 2025, or are we already near the top?
A widely circulated chart shows that in previous bull cycles (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin surged for roughly 2–3 quarters after halving, followed by a sharp correction. If this halving playbook holds true again for 2024, BTC could top out by mid to late Q3 2024, rather than in 2025.

What the chart shows:

• In 2017 and 2021, bull runs lasted 518–549 days post-breakout.

• Current cycle (post-April 2024 halving) has followed a similar trajectory, with BTC already seeing significant upward movement.

• Volume, time frames, and breakout behavior are repeating almost identically.

However, a counter-narrative on Twitter and crypto forums suggests a delayed top, with some arguing macro trends, institutional adoption, and ETF inflows could extend this cycle until fall 2025.

Why this matters:
If we’re nearing the cycle top, it may be time to lock in profits, rebalance portfolios, or prepare for a potential bear phase. On the other hand, if the market breaks from historical patterns, a longer, more gradual climb could be in play.

TL;DR: History says the peak may be just months away. Narratives say 2025. Which side are you on?