Bitcoin Aiming for $200K This Cycle?

[umair]

Hey everyone,

So I came across some recent data suggesting Bitcoin might be targeting the $200,000 mark this cycle, and I wanted to see what others think. On-chain profit metrics are flashing some interesting signals — about 98% of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. That’s pretty wild and historically has been seen near local tops, but this time analysts are still cautiously optimistic.

Some profit/loss ratios are peaking at levels that usually precede corrections, yet there’s still strong buying momentum from institutions, especially with those spot ETF inflows staying consistent. That kind of demand isn’t something we saw in previous bull runs, which might explain why some analysts are sticking with bullish price targets despite the market overheating a bit.

The idea is that Bitcoin could hit $155K based on historical Fibonacci extensions, and maybe even $200K by the end of the cycle — possibly early 2026 if the rally stays intact. But there's also a note of caution. When this many holders are in profit, people start selling. We’ve seen big retracements before when metrics like this spike.

What’s different now is the maturity of the market. Institutional players are in, long-term holders are dominating, and retail seems quieter compared to past cycles. Could be a sign of a more sustained climb—or just the calm before another sharp pullback.

What’s your take? Are we on a path to $200K or about to see another deep correction first? Is this another hype-driven cycle, or do the fundamentals justify the optimism this time?

Would love to hear your views.