Rising BTC Losses Signal Short-Term Stress

[Chawla Solutions]

Bitcoin’s short-term holders are once again under pressure, and on-chain data shows it clearly. According to Glassnode, realized losses among STH wallets have surged sharply, with the 7-day EMA now sitting around $427 million per day — a level we haven’t seen since November 2022. For context, the last time losses spiked this high, BTC was in the middle of the post-FTX panic phase. Today, however, the market structure is very different, which makes this signal even more interesting.

Short-term holders are known for buying local tops and selling into fear. Their realized losses typically rise when the market pulls back after a strong rally, suggesting that many newcomers are capitulating or being forced out of positions. At the same time, long-term holders remain largely untouched, continuing to hold their coins with conviction — a pattern seen in most bullish market cycles.

This spike in STH losses doesn’t necessarily mean the trend is reversing. In many previous cycles, such surges appeared during healthy corrections inside larger uptrends. They often signal temporary stress before the market finds stronger hands willing to absorb supply. If BTC stabilizes above key support zones, this wave of realized losses could become yet another “reset” that fuels the next leg upward.

In short: short-term pain, long-term potential. Rising losses show fear on the surface, but they may also signal that the market is flushing out weak positions — a classic ingredient of sustainable growth.