Fed Rate Decision: Scenarios for Crypto Markets

[Chawla Solutions]

The long-awaited moment is here. At 18:00 UTC, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest rate decision — an event already shaping expectations across financial markets. For crypto, the outcome will heavily influence short-term momentum.

Possible Scenarios

• Neutral (25 bps cut):

This outcome is widely expected and priced in. A modest cut could spark short-term gains, but with quarter-end profit-taking in traditional markets, crypto may also face a local correction before stabilizing.

• Positive (50 bps cut):

A deeper cut would surprise the market and inject strong bullish energy. Stocks might wobble due to policy uncertainty, but crypto could see a steady uptrend over the following month.

• Negative (no change):

This is the least favorable scenario. No adjustment would signal tighter financial conditions and could trigger panic selling, potentially dragging Bitcoin below 100K in a retest of key levels.

Why Powell’s Speech Matters
Beyond the numbers, Chair Jerome Powell’s tone at the press conference will be critical. Any suggestion of future cuts could soften market fears and restore optimism, even if today’s decision disappoints.

Conclusion
Regardless of the outcome, volatility is guaranteed. Traders should be prepared for sharp swings as the Fed’s decision sets the tone for global markets — with crypto right at the center of the reaction.