Why Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Isn’t Dead
Posted: Mon Jan 12, 2026 9:40 am
Recent discussions across crypto circles have claimed that Bitcoin’s famous four-year halving cycle is no longer relevant. According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, this conclusion is premature. Capital flow models — one of the most reliable tools for understanding Bitcoin’s macro behavior — still align closely with historical cycle patterns.
Woo points out that capital inflows into the Bitcoin network are currently declining in a way that mirrors previous post-halving slowdowns. This doesn’t signal failure or structural damage. Instead, it reflects a familiar phase where momentum cools, speculative demand fades, and weaker hands exit the market. In past cycles, these periods often marked the transition from peak enthusiasm into consolidation or bearish conditions.
What’s important is that Bitcoin’s cycles are not purely price-based. They are driven by liquidity, capital rotation, miner economics, and investor psychology. Halvings reduce new supply, but price reactions depend on how capital flows respond over time. When inflows slow, markets tend to weaken regardless of headlines or short-term narratives.
This current phase suggests that Bitcoin is entering a more defensive environment, where patience and risk management matter more than chasing momentum. However, history shows that bearish phases within the four-year cycle have consistently laid the groundwork for future accumulation and expansion.
Declining capital inflows don’t mean Bitcoin’s model is broken. They mean the cycle is behaving exactly as it has before. For long-term participants, understanding this rhythm helps avoid emotional decisions and reinforces why Bitcoin’s market structure remains uniquely predictable — even in times of uncertainty.
Woo points out that capital inflows into the Bitcoin network are currently declining in a way that mirrors previous post-halving slowdowns. This doesn’t signal failure or structural damage. Instead, it reflects a familiar phase where momentum cools, speculative demand fades, and weaker hands exit the market. In past cycles, these periods often marked the transition from peak enthusiasm into consolidation or bearish conditions.
What’s important is that Bitcoin’s cycles are not purely price-based. They are driven by liquidity, capital rotation, miner economics, and investor psychology. Halvings reduce new supply, but price reactions depend on how capital flows respond over time. When inflows slow, markets tend to weaken regardless of headlines or short-term narratives.
This current phase suggests that Bitcoin is entering a more defensive environment, where patience and risk management matter more than chasing momentum. However, history shows that bearish phases within the four-year cycle have consistently laid the groundwork for future accumulation and expansion.
Declining capital inflows don’t mean Bitcoin’s model is broken. They mean the cycle is behaving exactly as it has before. For long-term participants, understanding this rhythm helps avoid emotional decisions and reinforces why Bitcoin’s market structure remains uniquely predictable — even in times of uncertainty.