FOMC Meeting Today: Crypto Market on Edge

[Chawla Solutions]

Today at 2 p.m. ET, the U.S. Federal Reserve concludes its two-day FOMC meeting, with markets broadly expecting no change to the federal funds rate (4.25 %–4.50 %) . However, attention remains squarely on the dot plot and forward guidance, which could significantly sway crypto prices.
Cryptocurrency markets are already showing signs of heightened volatility. Bitcoin, currently trading above $105k, has stalled below resistance near $110k–$112k, while key altcoins like Ethereum and Ripple hold steady awaiting Fed clues.

Here’s what could play out:

• Hawkish tone: If Fed Chair Powell emphasizes persistent inflation and delays rate cuts (noting one cut expected later in 2025), markets could see a short-term pullback. Bitcoin might test support at $100k or even dip toward $92k–$95k.

• Dovish cues: Any hints of future rate cuts or dovish commentary could spark a rally. Historical data shows crypto markets typically rise ~1–2% on dovish surprises. A breakout above $112k–$115k may follow.

Added tension comes from global risks—like Middle East tensions—that could amplify reactions . Traders should closely track both the post-meeting statement and Powell’s press conference.
Takeaway: Expect choppy markets today. Use tight risk controls, watch support at $105k–$100k, and be ready for sharp moves based on Fed tone. Macro signals often set crypto moves before retail traders react—stay informed, stay agile.